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Latam DSA - Dec 2022

By Alphacast

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    Debt Sustainability Analysis - Costa Rica Dec 2022

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    Our Debt Sustainability Model uses the standard debt dynamic equation to generate forecasts for the Debt/GDP ratio throughout the next 10 years. Specifically, we use the following equation: $$ d{t+1} =d{t}\biggl[(1-\alpha)\biggl(\frac{1+i{dt}}{(1+gt)(1+\pit)}\biggl) +(\alpha)\biggl(\frac{(1+\Delta\epsilont)(1+i{ft})}{(1+gt)(1+\pit)}\biggl)\biggl] + pdt $$ In which: $$d_{t+1}$$ is the ratio Debt/GDP for the t+1 period; $$\alpha$$ is the share of foreign debt in relation to total debt; $$g_t$$ is the real growth of GDP at the period t; $$\pi_t$$ is the variation of the GDP deflator for the period t; $$\Delta\epsilon_t$$ is the devaluation of the exchange rate between the local currency to the US dollar during the period t; $$i_{dt}$$ is the implicit interest rate for the domestic debt, it is calculated as the ratio between the interest paid for the internal debt during the period t and the internal debt in the period t-1; $$i_{ft}$$ is the implicit interest rate for the foreign debt, it is calculated as the ratio between the interest paid for the internal debt during the period t and the internal debt in the period t-1; $$pd_t$$ is the primary deficit of the government during the period t. We account for uncertainty by applying random shocks for each variable. These shocks are constructed...

    Debt Sustainability Analysis - Colombia Dec 2022

    chart

    Our Debt Sustainability Model uses the standard debt dynamic equation to generate forecasts for the Debt/GDP ratio throughout the next 10 years. Specifically, we use the following the equation: $$ d{t+1} =d{t}\biggl[(1-\alpha)\biggl(\frac{1+i{dt}}{(1+gt)(1+\pit)}\biggl) +(\alpha)\biggl(\frac{(1+\Delta\epsilont)(1+i{ft})}{(1+gt)(1+\pit)}\biggl)\biggl] + pdt $$ In which: $$d_{t+1}$$ is the ratio Debt/GDP for the t+1 period; $$\alpha$$ is the share of foreign debt in relation to total debt; $$g_t$$ is the real growth of GDP at the period t; $$\pi_t$$ is the variation of the GDP deflator for the period t; $$\Delta\epsilon_t$$ is the devaluation of the exchange rate between the local currency to the US dollar during the period t; $$i_{dt}$$ is the implicit interest rate for the domestic debt, it is calculated as the ratio between the interest paid for the internal debt during the period t and the internal debt in the period t-1; $$i_{ft}$$ is the implicit interest rate for the foreign debt, it is calculated as the ratio between the interest paid for the internal debt during the period t and the internal debt in the period t-1; $$pd_t$$ is the primary deficit of the government during the period t. We account for uncertainty by applying random shocks for each variable. These shocks are...

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    Costa Rica DSA1 year ago
    Colombia DSA1 year ago
    Colombia DSA - Backup1 year ago
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