Francisco Fernandez

@franciscofernandez

Joined
March 2023

franciscofernandez's insights

  • Hands On: How to use Alphacast to monitor SMEs financing?

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    By Francisco Fernandez More Alphacast Highlights available at this link The Argentine economy has a significant part of its production, employment, and consumption destined to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). To understand their economic and financial situation, especially considering the scarcity of relevant high frequency official statistics, it is possible to use data on their financing. For this special segment of the economy, ECHEQs are fundamental - and Alphacast has a real-time updated Stock Market dataset of them, discriminating by maturity, asset type, and currency. The complexity of the dataset, in addition to the amount of data and variables available, makes it crucial to know how to process and analyze them. Therefore, in this hands-on guide, we will show how to filter the data, transform them, and present them graphically for their best use. For this, we will use the Alphacast pipeline engine to transform and plot data from guaranteed ECHEQs. Since the source is available in our database, the information is updated regularly and automatically, as soon as it is made public - both in the original dataset and in all uses. Step by step First, we start by creating a pipeline. This is simple: select "create new", then...

  • Alphacast High Frequency CPI - August 2023

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    Monthly inflation spiked at 10.2% MoM in August. Inflation remains at its highest value in decades, coupled with the highest annual inflation since the end of hyperinflation. Annual inflation was 121.2% YoY (compared to our measured values for August 2022), continuing the trend of extremely elevated printings. Core inflation, seasonal items and regulated prices went up. During the eighth month of the year, core inflation was 10.6% MoM, above the previous 6.5% MoM. Moreover, seasonal prices increased 9.6% MoM (vs previous 5.1% MoM). Lastly, regulated prices grew 8.9% MoM (vs 6.7% MoM). The incidence of core inflation was 6.7pp. in August, with a further 1.3pp due to regulated price increases, and 2.1pp to seasonal items. In consequence, without regulated price adjustments, inflation would have been in the 8.8% MoM territory. Our CPI’s statistical carry-over from August to September was 6.8% (vs 3.0% in the previous month). In addition, end of period (4-weeks) inflation was 12.5% MoM by the end of August. Inflation dynamics for 2023 will remain elevated, with increased uncertainty. Given that the first 8 months of the year showed very high price dynamics and no credible policy action has been taken, inflation will likely persist at an elevated...

  • Alphacast High Frequency CPI - August 30th 2023

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    Weekly inflation moderated but remained elevated. Consumer prices grew 2.4% WoW, lower than in the previous week (5.8% WoW). The monthly printing was 10.8% MoM, above the previous value (8.8% MoM -revised-). The interannual rate was 128.3% YoY, higher than the last figure (127.9% YoY). | Main figures| Previous week (published) |Previous (revised) | Current week| Monthly |Annual| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Headline inflation| 5.8% WoW | 5.8% | 2.4% |10.8% MoM| 128.3% YoY | | Core inflation| 6.6% WoW | 6.6% | 3.3% | 11.4% MoM| 127.2% YoY | | Dollarized core | 7.6% WoW | 7.6%| 3.6% | 13.1% MoM| 145.2% YoY | | Non-dollarized core | 4.4% WoW| 4.5% | 2.2% | 7.3% MoM| 124.0% YoY| | Food inflation | 6.0% WoW | 6.0% | 3.4% | 10.5% MoM| 139.4% YoY| Core inflation and seasonal items cooled down while regulated prices held steady. Weekly core inflation was 3.3% WoW, below the previous figure (6.6% WoW) while its monthly printing was 11.4% MoM, higher than the last week (9.1% MoM). In addition, prices of seasonal items grew 1.1% WoW, far below the previous value (7.5% WoW), and the...

  • SEIDO High Frequency CPI - August 23th 2023

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    Weekly inflation rose sharply. Consumer prices grew 5.8% WoW, higher than in the previous week (2.2% WoW -revised-). The monthly printing was 8.7% MoM, above the previous value (7.2% MoM). The interannual rate was 127.7% YoY, higher than the last figure (116.6% WoW -revised-). | Main figures| Previous week (published) |Previous (revised) | Current week| Monthly |Annual| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Headline inflation| 1.8% WoW | 2.2% | 5.8% |8.7% MoM| 127.7% YoY | | Core inflation| 1.8% WoW | 1.8% | 6.6% | 9.1% MoM| 125.0% YoY | | Dollarized core | 2.4% WoW | 2.5%| 7.6% | 10.2% MoM| 143.2% YoY | | Non-dollarized core | 0.3% WoW| 0.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% MoM| 121.5% YoY| | Food inflation | 1.9% WoW | 1.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% MoM| 138.5% YoY| Core inflation and seasonal items went up while regulated prices cooled down. Weekly core inflation was 6.6% WoW, far above the previous figure (1.8% WoW) while its monthly printing was 9.1% MoM, higher than the last week (7.3% MoM). In addition, prices of seasonal items grew 7.5% WoW, above the previous value (2.1% WoW -revised-), and the...

  • SEIDO High Frequency CPI - August 16th 2023

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    Weekly inflation moderated but remained elevated. Consumer prices grew 1.8% WoW, lower than in the previous week (2.3% WoW -revised-). The monthly printing was 7.0% MoM, above the previous value (6.7% MoM). The interannual rate was 115.3% YoY, higher than the last figure (114.5% WoW -revised-). | Main figures| Previous week (published) |Previous (revised) | Current week| Monthly |Annual| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Headline inflation| 2.1% WoW | 2.3% | 1.8% |7.0% MoM| 115.3% YoY | | Core inflation| 2.2% WoW | 2.2% | 1.8% | 7.3% MoM| 111.5% YoY | | Dollarized core | 2.5% WoW | 2.5%| 2.4% | 7.8% MoM| 125.9% YoY | | Non-dollarized core | 1.8% WoW| 1.9% | 0.3% | 4.8% MoM| 113.8% YoY| | Food inflation | 2.7% WoW | 2.3% | 1.9% | 7.0% MoM| 126.9% YoY| Core inflation, seasonal items and regulated prices cooled down. Weekly core inflation was 1.8% WoW, below the previous figure (2.2% WoW) while its monthly printing was 7.3% MoM, higher than the last week (6.6% WoW). In addition, prices of seasonal items grew 0.4% WoW, below the previous value (1.1% WoW), and the monthly rate was...

  • SEIDO High Frequency CPI - August 9th 2023

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    Weekly inflation accelerated. Consumer prices grew 2.1% WoW, higher than in the previous week (1.2% WoW -revised-). The monthly printing was 6.7% MoM, slightly below the previous value (6.8% MoM). The interannual rate was 114.2% YoY, higher than the last figure (113.1% WoW -revised-). | Main figures| Previous week (published) |Previous (revised) | Current week| Monthly |Annual| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Headline inflation| 1.1% WoW | 1.2% | 2.1% |6.7% MoM| 114.2% YoY | | Core inflation| 1.3% WoW | 1.5% | 2.2% | 6.6% MoM| 112.6% YoY | | Dollarized core | 1.7% WoW | 1.7%| 2.5% | 6.7% MoM| 125.6% YoY | | Non-dollarized core | 0.8% WoW| 1.2% | 1.8% | 5.0% MoM| 119.5% YoY| | Food inflation | 0.6% WoW | 0.6% | 2.7% | 7.7% MoM| 132.2% YoY| Core inflation, seasonal items and regulated prices went up. Weekly core inflation was 2.2% WoW, above the previous figure (1.5% WoW -revised-) while its monthly printing was 6.6% MoM, similar to the previous figure. In addition, prices of seasonal items grew 1.1% WoW, slightly above the previous value (1.0% WoW), and the monthly rate was 7.6% MoM,...

  • SEIDO High Frequency CPI - August 2nd 2023

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    Weekly inflation moderated. Consumer prices grew 1.1% WoW, lower than in the previous week (1.5% WoW). The monthly printing was 6.8% MoM, similar to the previous value (6.8% MoM -revised-). The interannual rate was 112.8% YoY, lower than the last figure (114.2% WoW -revised-). | Main figures| Previous week (published) |Previous (revised) | Current week| Monthly |Annual| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Headline inflation| 1.5% WoW | 1.5% | 1.1% |6.8% MoM| 112.8% YoY | | Core inflation| 2.1% WoW | 2.1% | 1.3% | 6.5% MoM| 112.2% YoY | | Dollarized core | 2.2% WoW | 2.2%| 1.7% | 6.5% MoM| 125.0% YoY | | Non-dollarized core | 1.4% WoW| 1.4% | 0.8% | 5.6% MoM| 118.5% YoY| | Food inflation | 2.7% WoW | 2.7% | 0.6% | 6.9% MoM| 124.4% YoY| Core inflation cooled down, seasonal items went up and regulated prices held steady. Weekly core inflation was 1.3% WoW, below the previous figure (2.1% WoW) while its monthly printing was 6.5% MoM, lower than the previous figure (6.9% MoM -revised-). In addition, prices of seasonal items grew 1.0% WoW, above the previous value (0.6% WoW), and the...

  • SEIDO High Frequency CPI - July 2023

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    Monthly inflation spiked at 6.9% MoM in July. Inflation remains at its highest value in decades, coupled with the highest annual inflation since the end of hyperinflation. Annual inflation was 116.7% YoY (compared to our measured values for July 2022), continuing the trend of extremely elevated printings. Core inflation and seasonal items went up while regulated prices slowed down. During the seventh month of the year, core inflation was 7.0% MoM, above the previous 6.5% MoM. Moreover, seasonal prices increased 7.7% MoM (vs previous 1.8% MoM). Lastly, regulated prices grew 5.4% MoM (vs 7.2% MoM). The incidence of core inflation was 4.4pp. in July, with a further 0.8pp due to regulated price increases, and 1.7pp to seasonal items. In consequence, without regulated price adjustments, inflation would have been in the 6.1% MoM territory. Our CPI’s statistical carry-over from July to August was 2.4% (vs 3.0% in the previous month). In addition, end of period (4-weeks) inflation was 6.7% MoM by the end of July. Inflation dynamics for 2023 will remain elevated, with increased uncertainty. Given that the first 7 months of the year showed very high price dynamics and no credible policy action has been taken, inflation will likely persist...