Alphacast High Frequency CPI

Weekly inflation accelerated in the first July reading. Consumer prices rose 0.59% WoW, up from 0.09% in the previous week. On a running basis, monthly inflation eased to 1.6% MoM, from 1.9%, while the annual rate remained broadly stable at 33.2% YoY. The weekly acceleration was mainly driven by regulated prices, which tend to show a seasonal pattern at the beginning of each month due to scheduled adjustments in services and other regulated items. Regulated prices rose 1.34% WoW, well above the previous week’s 0.08%, pushing their annual rate slightly higher to 36.2% YoY. Core inflation also accelerated, increasing 0.25% WoW, from 0.09% previously, although its monthly run rate continued to ease to 1.4% MoM. Seasonal prices rose 0.32% WoW, up from 0.12%, while their monthly pace declined to 1.2% MoM. Overall, the first July reading showed a clear weekly rebound, mostly explained by the typical beginning-of-month adjustment in regulated prices. However, the monthly run rate continued to moderate, suggesting that the increase did not fully reverse the broader disinflation trend observed through June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...

June inflation slowed further from the previous month, reaching its lowest monthly reading so far this year. Headline prices increased 2.1% MoM, down from 2.7% MoM in May, while the annual rate stood at 33.8% YoY. Based on the monthly figures shown, inflation accumulated approximately 17.8% during the first half of the year, while the current monthly pace implies an annualized rate of around 29.0%. During the month, both core and seasonal inflation decelerated, while regulated prices accelerated. Core inflation declined to 2.21% MoM, from 3.43% MoM in May, indicating a significant moderation in underlying inflationary pressures. Seasonal prices also slowed, rising 1.64% MoM, compared with 2.21% MoM in the previous month. In contrast, regulated prices increased 2.24% MoM, accelerating from 1.47% MoM in May. Overall, the June print showed a more favorable composition than in the previous month. The moderation in headline inflation was supported by a marked slowdown in core prices, while seasonal inflation also eased. Nevertheless, regulated prices partially offset this improvement, accelerating during the month and recording the highest increase among the three components. This change in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices remained the main contributor to the...

Weekly inflation moderated in the third week of June. Consumer prices rose 0.27% WoW, down from a revised 0.41% in the previous week, pointing to a slower weekly pace. On a running basis, inflation eased to 2.5% MoM, while the annual rate remained broadly stable at around 34% YoY. All major components decelerated during the week. Core inflation slowed to 0.35% WoW from 0.45%, while seasonal prices rose 0.34%, down from 0.42% previously. Regulated prices recorded the sharpest slowdown, increasing just 0.09% WoW compared with 0.33% in the previous week, as the impact of scheduled increases at the beginning of the month continued to fade. The broad-based moderation across components pulled headline inflation lower in the third week of June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...