Alphacast High Frequency CPI

Weekly inflation moderated in the second week of June. Consumer prices rose 0.41% WoW, down from 0.68% in the previous week, suggesting a slower weekly pace after the regulated-price-driven increase recorded at the start of the month. On a running basis, inflation eased to 2.7% MoM, while the annual rate remained broadly stable at around 34% YoY. Component dynamics were mixed in the second week of June, with core and seasonal prices firming slightly, while regulated prices decelerated sharply. Regulated prices rose 0.33% WoW, down from 1.44% in the previous week, as the impact of scheduled increases at the beginning of the month faded. In contrast, core inflation increased to 0.42% WoW, from 0.38%, while seasonal prices rose to 0.45% WoW, from 0.36% previously. Overall, the sharp slowdown in regulated prices more than offset the mild acceleration in core and seasonal components, pulling headline inflation lower in the second week of June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...

Weekly inflation rose in the first week of June. Consumer prices increased 0.67% WoW, up from the previous week’s 0.57%, suggesting a modest acceleration in the weekly pace. On a running basis, inflation remained at 2.8% MoM, while the annual rate edged up to 34.1% YoY. Component dynamics were mixed in the first week of June, with core and seasonal prices decelerating, while regulated prices reflected the impact of monthly adjustments. Regulated prices rose 1.44% WoW, above the previous week’s 0.28%, mainly due to scheduled increases at the start of the month rather than a broad-based acceleration in underlying price dynamics. In contrast, core inflation slowed to 0.36% WoW, down from 0.74%, while seasonal prices eased to 0.26% WoW, from 0.47% previously. As a result, the stronger regulated print more than offset softer core and seasonal dynamics, pushing headline inflation higher in the first week of June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...

May inflation slowed from the previous month, driven by a sharp deceleration in regulated prices. Headline prices increased 2.7% MoM, down from the revised 3.3% MoM in April, while the annual rate stood at 33.4% YoY. Inflation accumulated 15.2% so far this year, with the current monthly pace implying an annualized rate of 37.3%. During the month, core and seasonal prices accelerated, while regulated prices eased significantly. Core inflation printed 3.43% MoM, up from 2.67% MoM in April, becoming the main source of underlying pressure. Seasonal items rose 2.21% MoM, also above the previous month’s 1.88% MoM. In contrast, regulated prices increased only 1.47% MoM, slowing sharply from 5.07% MoM in April. Overall, the May print showed a clear moderation in headline inflation, but the composition was less favorable. The slowdown was mainly explained by regulated prices, while core inflation accelerated and remained the dominant driver of the monthly increase. This suggests that, despite the lower headline reading, underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent. This shift in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices were the main contributor to the monthly print, adding 1.96 pp, explained both by their higher monthly increase and their larger...