Guido Schiavi
@guidoschiavi
Published work
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - June 29th to July 5th 2026
Weekly inflation accelerated in the first July reading. Consumer prices rose 0.59% WoW, up from 0.09% in the previous week. On a running basis, monthly inflation eased to 1.6% MoM, from 1.9%, while the annual rate remained broadly stable at 33.2% YoY. The weekly acceleration was mainly driven by regulated prices, which tend to show a seasonal pattern at the beginning of each month due to scheduled adjustments in services and other regulated items. Regulated prices rose 1.34% WoW, well above the previous week’s 0.08%, pushing their annual rate slightly higher to 36.2% YoY. Core inflation also accelerated, increasing 0.25% WoW, from 0.09% previously, although its monthly run rate continued to ease to 1.4% MoM. Seasonal prices rose 0.32% WoW, up from 0.12%, while their monthly pace declined to 1.2% MoM. Overall, the first July reading showed a clear weekly rebound, mostly explained by the typical beginning-of-month adjustment in regulated prices. However, the monthly run rate continued to moderate, suggesting that the increase did not fully reverse the broader disinflation trend observed through June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI- June 1st to 30th 2026
June inflation slowed further from the previous month, reaching its lowest monthly reading so far this year. Headline prices increased 2.1% MoM, down from 2.7% MoM in May, while the annual rate stood at 33.8% YoY. Based on the monthly figures shown, inflation accumulated approximately 17.8% during the first half of the year, while the current monthly pace implies an annualized rate of around 29.0%. During the month, both core and seasonal inflation decelerated, while regulated prices accelerated. Core inflation declined to 2.21% MoM, from 3.43% MoM in May, indicating a significant moderation in underlying inflationary pressures. Seasonal prices also slowed, rising 1.64% MoM, compared with 2.21% MoM in the previous month. In contrast, regulated prices increased 2.24% MoM, accelerating from 1.47% MoM in May. Overall, the June print showed a more favorable composition than in the previous month. The moderation in headline inflation was supported by a marked slowdown in core prices, while seasonal inflation also eased. Nevertheless, regulated prices partially offset this improvement, accelerating during the month and recording the highest increase among the three components. This change in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices remained the main contributor to the...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - June 15th to 21th 2026
Weekly inflation moderated in the third week of June. Consumer prices rose 0.27% WoW, down from a revised 0.41% in the previous week, pointing to a slower weekly pace. On a running basis, inflation eased to 2.5% MoM, while the annual rate remained broadly stable at around 34% YoY. All major components decelerated during the week. Core inflation slowed to 0.35% WoW from 0.45%, while seasonal prices rose 0.34%, down from 0.42% previously. Regulated prices recorded the sharpest slowdown, increasing just 0.09% WoW compared with 0.33% in the previous week, as the impact of scheduled increases at the beginning of the month continued to fade. The broad-based moderation across components pulled headline inflation lower in the third week of June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - June 8th to 14th 2026
Weekly inflation moderated in the second week of June. Consumer prices rose 0.41% WoW, down from 0.68% in the previous week, suggesting a slower weekly pace after the regulated-price-driven increase recorded at the start of the month. On a running basis, inflation eased to 2.7% MoM, while the annual rate remained broadly stable at around 34% YoY. Component dynamics were mixed in the second week of June, with core and seasonal prices firming slightly, while regulated prices decelerated sharply. Regulated prices rose 0.33% WoW, down from 1.44% in the previous week, as the impact of scheduled increases at the beginning of the month faded. In contrast, core inflation increased to 0.42% WoW, from 0.38%, while seasonal prices rose to 0.45% WoW, from 0.36% previously. Overall, the sharp slowdown in regulated prices more than offset the mild acceleration in core and seasonal components, pulling headline inflation lower in the second week of June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - June 1st to 7th 2026
Weekly inflation rose in the first week of June. Consumer prices increased 0.67% WoW, up from the previous week’s 0.57%, suggesting a modest acceleration in the weekly pace. On a running basis, inflation remained at 2.8% MoM, while the annual rate edged up to 34.1% YoY. Component dynamics were mixed in the first week of June, with core and seasonal prices decelerating, while regulated prices reflected the impact of monthly adjustments. Regulated prices rose 1.44% WoW, above the previous week’s 0.28%, mainly due to scheduled increases at the start of the month rather than a broad-based acceleration in underlying price dynamics. In contrast, core inflation slowed to 0.36% WoW, down from 0.74%, while seasonal prices eased to 0.26% WoW, from 0.47% previously. As a result, the stronger regulated print more than offset softer core and seasonal dynamics, pushing headline inflation higher in the first week of June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 2.7% MoM in May
May inflation slowed from the previous month, driven by a sharp deceleration in regulated prices. Headline prices increased 2.7% MoM, down from the revised 3.3% MoM in April, while the annual rate stood at 33.4% YoY. Inflation accumulated 15.2% so far this year, with the current monthly pace implying an annualized rate of 37.3%. During the month, core and seasonal prices accelerated, while regulated prices eased significantly. Core inflation printed 3.43% MoM, up from 2.67% MoM in April, becoming the main source of underlying pressure. Seasonal items rose 2.21% MoM, also above the previous month’s 1.88% MoM. In contrast, regulated prices increased only 1.47% MoM, slowing sharply from 5.07% MoM in April. Overall, the May print showed a clear moderation in headline inflation, but the composition was less favorable. The slowdown was mainly explained by regulated prices, while core inflation accelerated and remained the dominant driver of the monthly increase. This suggests that, despite the lower headline reading, underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent. This shift in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices were the main contributor to the monthly print, adding 1.96 pp, explained both by their higher monthly increase and their larger...
