Alphcast

Guido Schiavi

@guidoschiavi

Joined
July 2025

guidoschiavi's insights

  • byguidoschiavi

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast High Frequency CPI - June 8st to 14th 2026

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    Weekly inflation moderated in the second week of June. Consumer prices rose 0.41% WoW, down from 0.68% in the previous week, suggesting a slower weekly pace after the regulated-price-driven increase recorded at the start of the month. On a running basis, inflation eased to 2.7% MoM, while the annual rate remained broadly stable at around 34% YoY. Component dynamics were mixed in the second week of June, with core and seasonal prices firming slightly, while regulated prices decelerated sharply. Regulated prices rose 0.33% WoW, down from 1.44% in the previous week, as the impact of scheduled increases at the beginning of the month faded. In contrast, core inflation increased to 0.42% WoW, from 0.38%, while seasonal prices rose to 0.45% WoW, from 0.36% previously. Overall, the sharp slowdown in regulated prices more than offset the mild acceleration in core and seasonal components, pulling headline inflation lower in the second week of June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...

  • byguidoschiavi

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast High Frequency CPI - June 1st to 7th 2026

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    Weekly inflation rose in the first week of June. Consumer prices increased 0.67% WoW, up from the previous week’s 0.57%, suggesting a modest acceleration in the weekly pace. On a running basis, inflation remained at 2.8% MoM, while the annual rate edged up to 34.1% YoY. Component dynamics were mixed in the first week of June, with core and seasonal prices decelerating, while regulated prices reflected the impact of monthly adjustments. Regulated prices rose 1.44% WoW, above the previous week’s 0.28%, mainly due to scheduled increases at the start of the month rather than a broad-based acceleration in underlying price dynamics. In contrast, core inflation slowed to 0.36% WoW, down from 0.74%, while seasonal prices eased to 0.26% WoW, from 0.47% previously. As a result, the stronger regulated print more than offset softer core and seasonal dynamics, pushing headline inflation higher in the first week of June. *Notes: 1: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation...

  • byguidoschiavi

     - 3 minutes to read

    Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 2.7% MoM in May

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    May inflation slowed from the previous month, driven by a sharp deceleration in regulated prices. Headline prices increased 2.7% MoM, down from the revised 3.3% MoM in April, while the annual rate stood at 33.4% YoY. Inflation accumulated 15.2% so far this year, with the current monthly pace implying an annualized rate of 37.3%. During the month, core and seasonal prices accelerated, while regulated prices eased significantly. Core inflation printed 3.43% MoM, up from 2.67% MoM in April, becoming the main source of underlying pressure. Seasonal items rose 2.21% MoM, also above the previous month’s 1.88% MoM. In contrast, regulated prices increased only 1.47% MoM, slowing sharply from 5.07% MoM in April. Overall, the May print showed a clear moderation in headline inflation, but the composition was less favorable. The slowdown was mainly explained by regulated prices, while core inflation accelerated and remained the dominant driver of the monthly increase. This suggests that, despite the lower headline reading, underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent. This shift in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices were the main contributor to the monthly print, adding 1.96 pp, explained both by their higher monthly increase and their larger...

  • byguidoschiavi

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast High Frequency CPI - May 18th to 24th 2026

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    Weekly inflation was virtually unchanged in the third week of May. Consumer prices rose 0.75% WoW, broadly in line with the previous week’s revised 0.77%. The headline print remained stable, suggesting no further acceleration in the weekly pace despite firmer readings in core and seasonal prices. On a running basis, inflation is tracking at 2.8% MoM, while the annual rate stands at 34% YoY. Component dynamics were mixed in the third week of May, with core and seasonal prices accelerating, while regulated prices slowed further. Core inflation came in at 1.02% WoW, up from the previous week’s revised 0.93%, while seasonal items rose 1% WoW, above the prior week’s 0.89%. Regulated prices increased just 0.14% WoW, down from 0.41% in the previous week. As a result, the softer regulated print helped offset stronger core and seasonal dynamics, keeping headline inflation broadly...

  • byguidoschiavi

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast High Frequency CPI - May 11th to 17th 2026

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    Weekly inflation slowed marginally in the second week of May. Consumer prices rose 0.81% WoW, down from the previous week’s revised 0.89%. On a running basis, inflation is tracking at 2.7% MoM, while the annual rate stands at 33.5% YoY. Component dynamics were mixed in the second week of May, with core and seasonal prices posting higher weekly readings, while regulated prices slowed. The deceleration in headline inflation was mainly driven by a softer regulated print, which more than offset firmer core and seasonal readings. Core inflation came in at 0.99% WoW, up from the previous week’s revised 0.82%, while seasonal items rose 0.94% WoW, above the prior week’s 0.86%. Regulated prices increased 0.42% WoW, down from 1.05% in the previous week, as the effect of monthly adjustments across regulated categories became less...

  • byguidoschiavi

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast High Frequency CPI - May 4th to 10th 2026

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    Weekly inflation accelerated in the second week of May. Consumer prices rose 0.91% WoW, up from the previous week’s revised 0.52%. On a running basis, inflation is tracking at 2.8% MoM, while the annual rate stands at 33% YoY. Component dynamics were firmer in the second week of May, with core, seasonal, and regulated prices all posting higher weekly readings. The acceleration in headline inflation was partly driven by a firmer core reading, which rose after the moderation observed in the previous week. Core inflation came in at 0.85% WoW, up from the previous week’s revised 0.70%, while seasonal items rose 0.88% WoW, above the prior week’s 0.73%. Regulated prices increased 1.05% WoW, after 0.10% in the previous week, reflecting the impact of monthly adjustments across regulated...

  • byguidoschiavi

     - 2 minutes to read

    Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 3.4% MoM in April

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    April inflation moved higher, driven mainly by regulated prices. Headline prices increased 3.4% MoM, up from 3.2% MoM in March, while the annual rate edged up to 32.5% YoY. During the month, regulated and seasonal prices accelerated, while core inflation remained broadly stable. Core inflation printed 2.57% MoM, marginally below March’s 2.60% MoM. Seasonal items rose 2.76% MoM, up from 2.12% MoM in the previous month, while regulated prices increased 5.07% MoM, accelerating further from March’s 4.90% MoM. This shift in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Regulated prices were the main contributor to the monthly print, adding 1.58 pp, slightly above the 1.46 pp explained by core items, despite their lower weight in the basket. Seasonal components contributed 0.36 pp. Excluding the direct contribution from regulated prices, monthly inflation would have been closer to 1.8%. The statistical carryover from April into May fell to 1.2%, down from the 1.9% carryover left by March into April. Meanwhile, end-of-period inflation over the last four weeks stood at 2.6%. Weekly inflation slightly moderated in the final week of April and first days of May (Apr 27–May 3). Consumer prices rose 0.53% WoW, down from the previous week’s...

  • byguidoschiavi

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast High Frequency CPI - April 20th to 26th 2026

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    Weekly inflation eased in the fourth week of April. Consumer prices rose 0.56% WoW, down from the previous week’s revised 0.68%. On a running basis, inflation is tracking at 3.3% MoM, while the annual rate stands at 32.4% YoY. Across components, core and seasonal inflation moderated on the week, while regulated prices remained broadly stable at low levels. Headline inflation slowed as softer core and seasonal readings more than offset the limited move in regulated items. Core inflation came in at 0.74% WoW, down from the previous week’s revised 0.89%, while the monthly pace edged up to 2.6% MoM. Seasonal items rose 0.8% WoW, easing from the previous week’s revised 1.01%, with the monthly pace running at 2.8% MoM. Meanwhile, regulated prices increased 0.11% WoW, broadly in line with the previous week’s revised 0.13%, while the monthly pace slowed to 4.8% MoM from...