Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 2.1% MoM in June

June inflation slowed further from the previous month, reaching its lowest monthly reading so far this year. Headline prices increased 2.1% MoM, down from 2.7% MoM in May, while the annual rate stood at 33.8% YoY. Based on the monthly figures shown, inflation accumulated approximately 17.8% during the first half of the year, while the current monthly pace implies an annualized rate of around 29.0%.

During the month, both core and seasonal inflation decelerated, while regulated prices accelerated. Core inflation declined to 2.21% MoM, from 3.43% MoM in May, indicating a significant moderation in underlying inflationary pressures. Seasonal prices also slowed, rising 1.64% MoM, compared with 2.21% MoM in the previous month. In contrast, regulated prices increased 2.24% MoM, accelerating from 1.47% MoM in May.

Overall, the June print showed a more favorable composition than in the previous month. The moderation in headline inflation was supported by a marked slowdown in core prices, while seasonal inflation also eased. Nevertheless, regulated prices partially offset this improvement, accelerating during the month and recording the highest increase among the three components.

This change in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices remained the main contributor to the monthly print, adding approximately 1.26 pp, mainly due to their larger weight in the basket. Regulated prices contributed around 0.67 pp, while seasonal components added approximately 0.21 pp. Excluding the direct contribution from regulated prices, monthly inflation would have been close to 1.5%.

The statistical carryover from June into July moved to 0.3%, down from the 1.3% carryover left by May into June. Meanwhile, end-of-period inflation over the last four weeks stood at 1.2%.

Weekly inflation slowed further in the fourth week of June (June 22–28). Consumer prices rose 0.07% WoW, down from 0.13% in the previous week. On a monthly basis, the run rate eased to 1.9% MoM, from 2.3%, while the annual rate declined to 33.2% YoY, from 33.6%.

Core and seasonal prices decelerated on a weekly basis, while regulated prices increased slightly. Core inflation slowed to 0.07% WoW, from 0.16% in the previous week, bringing its monthly run rate down to 1.9% MoM, from 2.5%. Seasonal prices rose 0.10% WoW, below the prior week’s 0.16%, while their monthly pace declined to 1.5% MoM, from 1.8%. Regulated prices increased 0.07% WoW, slightly above the previous week’s 0.06%, with their monthly run rate remaining stable at 2.2% MoM.

Overall, the fourth-week reading points to a broad moderation in inflation, mainly driven by weaker core and seasonal dynamics. Regulated prices remained the most persistent component on a monthly basis, although their annual rate continued to decline.

Market forecasts were revised marginally downward during the month. The inflation estimate for May was lowered to 2.04% MoM, while the 2026 inflation forecast declined to 30.46%, around 0.4 pp below the previous REM estimate of 30.87%. The median projection remained broadly unchanged at 30.5%. Meanwhile, inflation for 2027 is expected to reach 19.92%, broadly in line with the estimate published in April.

*Notes:

1: Starting from the week of June 9th, weekly variation dates correspond to the first day of each week. For example, the week of June 23rd covers the period from June 23rd to June 29th. Prior to this change, weeks were counted from Wednesday to Tuesday; now, they run from Monday to Sunday.

2: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation model.*