Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 2.7% MoM in May

May inflation slowed from the previous month, driven by a sharp deceleration in regulated prices. Headline prices increased 2.7% MoM, down from the revised 3.3% MoM in April, while the annual rate stood at 33.4% YoY. Inflation accumulated 15.2% so far this year, with the current monthly pace implying an annualized rate of 37.3%.

During the month, core and seasonal prices accelerated, while regulated prices eased significantly. Core inflation printed 3.43% MoM, up from 2.67% MoM in April, becoming the main source of underlying pressure. Seasonal items rose 2.21% MoM, also above the previous month’s 1.88% MoM. In contrast, regulated prices increased only 1.47% MoM, slowing sharply from 5.07% MoM in April.

Overall, the May print showed a clear moderation in headline inflation, but the composition was less favorable. The slowdown was mainly explained by regulated prices, while core inflation accelerated and remained the dominant driver of the monthly increase. This suggests that, despite the lower headline reading, underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent.

This shift in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices were the main contributor to the monthly print, adding 1.96 pp, explained both by their higher monthly increase and their larger weight in the basket. Regulated prices contributed 0.43 pp, well below their contribution in April, while seasonal components added 0.29 pp. Excluding the direct contribution from regulated prices, monthly inflation would have been closer to 2.2%.

The statistical carryover from May into June moved to 1.3%, up from the 1.1% carryover left by April into May. Meanwhile, end-of-period inflation over the last four weeks stood at 2.9%.

Weekly inflation accelerated in the final week of May (May 25–31). Consumer prices rose 0.57% WoW, up from the previous week’s revised 0.50%. On a monthly basis, the run rate moved to 2.8% MoM, while the annual rate came in at 34.0% YoY, slightly above the prior week’s revised 33.6%.

Core, seasonal, and regulated prices all accelerated marginally on a weekly basis. Core prices rose 0.74% WoW, up from the previous week’s revised 0.70%. The monthly core run rate stayed at 3.4% MoM, in line with the prior week’s pace. Seasonal items increased 0.47% WoW, slightly above the revised 0.45% previously, while their monthly run rate rose to 2.2% MoM. Regulated prices increased 0.28% WoW, up from the previous week’s revised 0.13%, and their monthly pace accelerated to 1.7% MoM.

Market forecasts were marginally revised upward throughout the month. Inflation expectations for May were revised up to 2.29% MoM. The 2026 outlook was revised up to 30.87%, 1.51 pp above the previous REM estimate of 29.36%. The median projection increased to 30.5%, while the 2027 forecast points to inflation of around 19.92%, also above the April estimates.

*Notes:

1: Starting from the week of June 9th, weekly variation dates correspond to the first day of each week. For example, the week of June 23rd covers the period from June 23rd to June 29th. Prior to this change, weeks were counted from Wednesday to Tuesday; now, they run from Monday to Sunday.

2: The full 2026 series was revised following an improvement in our seasonal price estimation model.*