Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 2.4% MoM in January

January inflation barely eased. Headline prices rose 2.4% MoM, down from 2.5% MoM in December, while the annual rate ticked up to 30.3% YoY.

Throughout the reference month, core and seasonal prices accelerated, while regulated prices decelerated. Core inflation came in at 2.78% MoM, well above the prior month’s revised 2.39% MoM. Seasonal items rose 2.03% MoM, up from December’s revised 1.53%, while regulated prices increased 1.69% MoM, down from December’s revised 3.13%. Core items accounted for 1.59 percentage points of headline inflation, regulated items contributed 0.54 pp, and seasonal components added 0.31 pp. Excluding regulated prices, monthly inflation would have been closer to 1.9%.

The carryover from December into January rose to 1.3%, above last month’s figure. Meanwhile, end-of-period inflation over the last four weeks reached 2.8%.

Inflation eased on a weekly basis in the last week of January (January 26–February 1). Consumer prices rose 0.58% WoW, down from the previous week’s revised 0.63%. On a monthly basis, the pace accelerated to 2.6% MoM. Meanwhile, the annual rate came in at 30.57% YoY, broadly in line with the prior week’s revised 30.51%.

Core and seasonal inflation decelerated slightly, while regulated prices accelerated. Core prices rose 0.69% WoW, below the previous week’s revised 0.91%. On a monthly basis, core inflation was 3.3% MoM, above the prior week’s run rate. Seasonal items climbed 0.49% WoW (vs. a revised 0.54% previously), while their monthly pace accelerated to 2.2% MoM. Regulated prices increased 0.40% WoW, and their monthly pace slowed to 1.4% MoM.

Market forecasts continued to be conservative during the month. Inflation expectations for January were revised up to 2.07% MoM. The 2026 outlook was revised up to 21.09%, 2.1 pp above the previous REM estimate of 19.08%. The median projection increased to 20.15%, while the 2027 forecast points to inflation of around 12.7%, also above the December estimates.

Note: Starting from the week of June 9th, weekly variation dates correspond to the first day of each week. For example, the week of June 23rd covers the period from June 23rd to June 29th. Prior to this change, weeks were counted from Wednesday to Tuesday; now, they run from Monday to Sunday.