Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 3.2% MoM in March

March inflation moved higher. Headline prices increased 3.2% MoM, up from 2.8% MoM in February, while the annual rate edged up to 31.7% YoY.

During the month, regulated and seasonal prices accelerated, while core inflation decelerated. Core inflation printed 2.6% MoM, down from February’s 3.41% MoM. Seasonal items increased 2.6% MoM, up from 1.65% MoM in the previous month, while regulated prices rose 4.9% MoM, accelerating sharply from February’s 2.14% MoM. This shift in relative price dynamics was also reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation, with regulated prices accounting for a much larger share of the monthly print than in the previous month. In terms of contributions, core items explained 1.48 percentage points of headline inflation, regulated items added 1.42 pp, and seasonal components contributed 0.30 pp. Excluding regulated prices, monthly inflation would have been closer to 1.78%.

The carryover from February into March increased to 1.9%. Meanwhile, end-of-period inflation over the last four weeks reached 4.1%.

Weekly inflation slightly moderated in the final week of March (Mar 23–29). Consumer prices rose 0.92% WoW, down from the previous week’s revised 1.03%. On a monthly basis, inflation held at 3.4% MoM, while the annual rate came in at 31.73% YoY, slightly below the prior week’s revised 31.77%.

Core, seasonal, and regulated components all eased in the final week of March, although the slowdown in regulated prices was only marginal. Core prices increased 0.46% WoW, below the previous week’s revised 0.6%. On a monthly basis, core inflation was running at 2.5% MoM, equal to the prior week’s pace. Seasonal items rose 0.47% WoW, down from a revised 0.62% previously, while their monthly rate held at 2.3% MoM. Regulated prices increased 1.99% WoW, slightly below the previous week’s 2.06%, although their monthly pace accelerated to 5.5% MoM.

Market forecasts were revised upward throughout the month. Inflation expectations for March were revised up to 2.52% MoM. The 2026 outlook was revised up to 25.70%, 3.35 pp above the previous REM estimate of 22.35%. The median projection increased to 26.05%, while the 2027 forecast points to inflation of around 16.4%, also above the February estimates.

Note: Starting from the week of June 9th, weekly variation dates correspond to the first day of each week. For example, the week of June 23rd covers the period from June 23rd to June 29th. Prior to this change, weeks were counted from Wednesday to Tuesday; now, they run from Monday to Sunday.