Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 2.8% MoM in February

February inflation moved higher. Headline prices increased 2.8% MoM, up from 2.4% MoM in January, while the annual rate edged up to 31% YoY.

During the month, core and regulated prices accelerated, while seasonal prices decelerated. Core inflation printed 3.41% MoM, well above the prior month’s revised 2.78% MoM. Seasonal items increased 1.65% MoM, down from January’s revised 1.75%, while regulated prices rose 2.14% MoM, up from January’s revised 1.69%. In terms of contributions, core items explained 1.96 percentage points of headline inflation, regulated items added 0.61 pp, and seasonal components contributed 0.20 pp. Excluding regulated prices, monthly inflation would have been closer to 2.15%.

The carryover from January into February increased to 1.0%, though it remained below last month’s reading. Meanwhile, end-of-period inflation over the last four weeks reached 2.5%.

Weekly inflation moderated in the final week of February (Feb 23–Mar 1). Consumer prices rose 0.38% WoW, down from the previous week’s revised 0.47%. On a monthly basis, inflation held at 2.8% MoM. Meanwhile, the annual rate came in at 30.67% YoY, down from the prior week’s revised 31.14%.

Core, seasonal, and regulated components all cooled, albeit to varying degrees. Core prices increased 0.39% WoW, below the previous week’s revised 0.53%. On a monthly basis, core inflation was running at 3.3% MoM, below the prior week’s pace. Seasonal items rose 0.25% WoW (vs. a revised 0.34% previously), while their monthly rate held at 1.7% MoM. Regulated prices increased 0.41% WoW, broadly in line with last week, and their monthly pace accelerated to 2.4% MoM.

Market forecasts were revised upward throughout the month. Inflation expectations for February were revised up to 2.1% MoM. The 2026 outlook was revised up to 22.35%, 1.3 pp above the previous REM estimate of 21.09%. The median projection increased to 22.42%, while the 2027 forecast points to inflation of around 15%, also above the January estimates.

Note: Starting from the week of June 9th, weekly variation dates correspond to the first day of each week. For example, the week of June 23rd covers the period from June 23rd to June 29th. Prior to this change, weeks were counted from Wednesday to Tuesday; now, they run from Monday to Sunday.