Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 3.4% MoM in April

April inflation moved higher, driven mainly by regulated prices. Headline prices increased 3.4% MoM, up from 3.2% MoM in March, while the annual rate edged up to 32.5% YoY.

During the month, regulated and seasonal prices accelerated, while core inflation remained broadly stable. Core inflation printed 2.57% MoM, marginally below March’s 2.60% MoM. Seasonal items rose 2.76% MoM, up from 2.12% MoM in the previous month, while regulated prices increased 5.07% MoM, accelerating further from March’s 4.90% MoM. This shift in relative price dynamics was reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Regulated prices were the main contributor to the monthly print, adding 1.58 pp, slightly above the 1.46 pp explained by core items, despite their lower weight in the basket. Seasonal components contributed 0.36 pp. Excluding the direct contribution from regulated prices, monthly inflation would have been closer to 1.8%.

The statistical carryover from April into May fell to 1.2%, down from the 1.9% carryover left by March into April. Meanwhile, end-of-period inflation over the last four weeks stood at 2.6%.

Weekly inflation slightly moderated in the final week of April and first days of May (Apr 27–May 3). Consumer prices rose 0.53% WoW, down from the previous week’s revised 0.55%. On a monthly basis, the run rate eased to 3.0% MoM, while the annual rate came in at 32.65% YoY, slightly above the prior week’s revised 32.29%.

Core, seasonal, and regulated prices all eased marginally on a weekly basis. Core prices rose 0.70% WoW, below the previous week’s revised 0.74%. However, the monthly core run rate moved up to 2.8% MoM, above the prior week’s pace. Seasonal items increased 0.74% WoW, down from a revised 0.75% previously, while their monthly run rate rose to 2.9% MoM. Regulated prices increased 0.10% WoW, slightly below the previous week’s 0.11%, and their monthly pace decelerated to 3.3% MoM. Overall, the weekly print showed a mild broad-based moderation, although the monthly dynamics remained mixed across components.

Market forecasts were revised upward throughout the month. Inflation expectations for April were revised up to 2.57% MoM. The 2026 outlook was revised up to 29.36%, 3.66 pp above the previous REM estimate of 25.70%. The median projection increased to 29.13%, while the 2027 forecast points to inflation of around 19.33%, also above the March estimates.

Note: Starting from the week of June 9th, weekly variation dates correspond to the first day of each week. For example, the week of June 23rd covers the period from June 23rd to June 29th. Prior to this change, weeks were counted from Wednesday to Tuesday; now, they run from Monday to Sunday.