SEIDO High Frequency CPI - February 17th 2023
SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 1.2% WoW
Weekly inflation moderated but remains high. Consumer prices grew 1.2% WoW, lower than in the previous week (1.7% WoW). The monthly printing was 6% MoM, above the previous figure (5.7% MoM). Holding inflation constant for the rest of the month, given our previously published figures, inflation would be 5.4% MoM in February. The interannual rate was 108.6% YoY (vs 107.7% YoY -revised-).
| Main figures | Previous week (published) | Previous (revised) | Current week | Monthly | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation | 1.7% WoW | 1.7% | 1.2% | 6.0% MoM | 108.6% YoY |
| Core inflation | 2.3% WoW | 2.4% | 1.9% | 7.4% MoM | 102.5% YoY |
| Dollarized core | 2.8% WoW | 2.9% | 1.7% | 7.7% MoM | 113.5% YoY |
| Non-dollarized core | 2.1% WoW | 2.1% | 2.6% | 6.9% MoM | 112.2% YoY |
| Food inflation | 3.4% WoW | 3.5% | 2.2% | 9.2% MoM | 111.7% YoY |
Core inflation kept growing while seasonal items prices turned negative. Weekly core inflation was 1.9% WoW, below the previous 2.4% WoW, while its monthly printing was 7.4% MoM (above the previous 6.6% MoM -revised-). In addition, prices of seasonal items fell -0.2% WoW, lower than the previous value (0.8% WoW), and the monthly rate was 1.9% MoM (vs 2.7% MoM -revised-). Lastly, regulated prices increased by 0.2% WoW, while their monthly printing was 6.4% MoM (down from previous 6.5% MoM).
Prices non-dollarized items heated up, while dollarized slowed down. The weekly printing for dollarized items inflation was 1.7% WoW, sharply above the previous 2.9% WoW (revised), while the monthly printing was 7.7% MoM (vs previous 7.2% MoM -revised-). On the other hand, non-dollarized items inflation was 2.6% WoW (vs previous 2.1% WoW), and the monthly figure grew to 6.9% MoM (vs previous 6.2% MoM).
Food and Beverages prices continued climbing. Our monitoring of Food & Beverages shows a weekly variation of 2.2% WoW, substantially lower than the previous 3.5% WoW (revised), but still high. In addition, the monthly figure was 9.2% MoM, a jump from the previous 8% MoM (revised).
The distribution of price changes continued changing. The fraction of our monitored prices increasing 4% or more per month was 57%, a slight increase from the previous 53% (revised), and still significantly below the August peak of 84%. Moreover, a further 18% of prices are growing between 2% and 4%, slightly below the previous 22% (revised). Lastly, 25% of our monitored prices are rising less than 2%, the same level as the previous week.
