Maia Mindel
@MaiaM
Macroeconomic analyst at Alphacast. Following inflation, activity, and trade.
Maia Mindel
@MaiaM
Macroeconomic analyst at Alphacast. Following inflation, activity, and trade.
MaiaM's insights
Hands on tracking Consumption and Investment in real time
By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here In this hands-on guide, we will show you how to use Alphacast Pipelines to create coincident indeces and monitor key economic variables. What is a coincident index? A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors two of the two largest components of GDP, Private Consumption and Private Fixed Investment. Since both indeces have a certain complexity, the methodology will be shown separately, though there are major similarities between the two. How to make the Investment Index In this case, we will show you how to create the coincident investment index. The index is divided in sections, which are weighed in accordance with their relevance to the variable at hand, and estimated using the latest available data for each. Given that the index uses the Alphacast pipelines engine and data available on the platform's database, that means that the Index will be updated to reflect it as soon as the data is uploaded in the Alphacast site - in a completely automated manner. The first step is identifying the data series...
Alphacast Debt Sustainability Analysis: Colombia
Contents: - Introducing Debt Sustainability Analysis - Example: Colombia - Methodology Introducing Debt Sustainability Analysis Alphacast has integrated into it's platform a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Tool. Basically, this tool can help you forecast the Debt/GDP ratio of a country, taking into account specific characteristics such as growth, inflation, interest rates on domestic and foreign debt, exchange rate depreciation and primary surplus. The tool also applies shocks to generate a fan-chart style chart so it can account for uncertainty into the forecasts (see Methodology for more information). It will take literally less than a minute to generate charts just like this one below. Click here for a detailed explanation on how to use our new tool. Read below some examples to illustrate how to use this tool to produce your own analysis. Example: Colombia Over the past few years, Colombia has registered consecutive primary deficits and low growth rates. Recently, the government tried to reduce its primary deficit, so they could put public debt on a sustainable path again. Colombia's debt is primarily internal, although the country has sizable external liabilities as well, with about a third of total borrowing coming from international sources. In our base scenario we assume...
A short guide to Ecuadorian macro and financial data
Highlights of the Ecuadorian Economy The Ecuadorian economy continues slow recovery from COVID. Given that the economy was already in a recession by 2019, Ecuador was hit particularly hard by the COVID pandemic - with a GDP contraction of 9% in 2020 and a slow recovery of 4% in 2021, with an even lower expected rate for 2022 - resulting in a similarly unimpressive labor market. Unlike most other countries, inflation in Ecuador has increased but not to extraordinary levels, resulting in a more beneficial real exchange rate. Perspectives remain muted, with slow but steady growth and no real changes in inflation, although the country's financial position may face complications in the future. You can find a version of this piece on Ecuador here and read more Alphacast Highlights here Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Ecuador? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from from different sources, including both government statistics and datasets produced by private entities. If you are looking for data about Ecuador you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Our Datasets are contained...
A short guide to Ecuadorian macro and financial data
Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Ecuador? There are loads of datasets, available in both the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) and National Institute of Statistics (INEC) repositories, both containing oficial statistics from from different sources. The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release it, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. If you are looking for data about Ecuador you'll probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Our Datasets are contained in five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of the Ecuadorian Economy, you can monitor the evolution of GDP, Industrial Production, Employment and Wages. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Monthly Gross Domestic Product Employment Indicators Wages This is just a small sample of all the datasets we make available to our users, but there is more information that we know you will find useful such as fuel production or consumer confidence. Moreover, data is pre-processed within the platform so that you don't have to spend time doing transformations such as Seasonal Adjustment, currency change, %...
A short guide to Uruguayan macro and financial data
Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Uruguay? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from from different sources, including both government statistics and datasets produced by private entities. If you are looking for data about Uruguay you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Uruguay Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Uruguay Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and Uruguay's Ministry of Economy and Finances. The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money...
A short guide to Mexican macro and financial data
Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Mexico? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from from different sources, including both government statistics and datasets produced by private entities. If you are looking for data about Mexico you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Mexico Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Mexico Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and Mexico's Department of the Treasury (SHCP). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity,...
Step-by-Step: How the Coincident Consumption Index Was Made
A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors one the largest components of GDP, Private Consumption. The index is divided in sections, which are weighed in accordance with their relevance to the variable at hand, and estimated using the latest available data for each. You can see read more about the index (methodology, usefulness, interpretation) here. | Component | Weight | Indicators| | --- | --- | --- | | Food and Beverages| 22.7%| Baked Goods, Meats, Fruits and Vegetables, Dairy, Beverages, Sweets and Candy| | Housing and Utilities| 14.5%| Real Estate and Housing Services, Electricity, Heating, Running Water| | Transportation| 14.5%| Vehicle purchases, Fuels, Transportation Services, Airfare| | Recreation and Culture | 8.6%| Related goods| | Clothing and Footwear | 6.8%| Clothing and Footwear production| | Restaurants and Hotels | 6.6%| Restaurants and Hotels activity| | Healthcare | 6.4%| Healthcare activity| | Home Equipment | 5.4%| Appliances, Furniture and Mattresses| | Communications | 5.3%| Activity in Communications| | Other Services| 4.3%| Financial Services, Personal and Professional Services| | Education| 3.2%| Education activity| | Alcohol and Tobacco| 1.9%| Wine,...
A short guide to Mexican macro data
**Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Mexico? There are more than 200 datasets (see for example this Repository).** If you look for data about Mexico, you will probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Uruguay Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Mexico Country Profile Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the Treasury Ministry (MH). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of the...
