Alphcast

Maia Mindel

@MaiaM

Macroeconomic analyst at Alphacast. Following inflation, activity, and trade.

Joined
July 2021

MaiaM's insights

  • byMaiaM

     - 4 minutes to read

    SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 5.3% MoM in December

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    Monthly inflation remained elevated at 5.3% MoM, and annual inflation reached the triple digits. Monthly inflation moderately rose in December, with a headline rate of 5.3% MoM (versus previous 4.9% MoM). Inflation remains at its highest values in decades, coupled with the highest annual inflation since the end of hyperinflation - the record setting value of 100.4% YoY (vs SEIDO's measurement for December 2021), nearly double 2021's 50.9%. Seasonal items and core inflation accelerated, while regulated prices slowed down. During the last month of the year, core inflation was 5.2% MoM, above the previous 4.8% MoM. Moreover, seasonal prices increased 5.8% MoM (vs previous 4.1% MoM). Lastly, regulated prices grew 5.1% MoM (vs 6.2% MoM). Incidence of core inflation was 3.5pp. in December, with a further 0.8pp due to regulated price increases, and 1pp to seasonal items. In consequence, without regulated price adjustments, inflation would have been in the 4.5% MoM territory. Our CPI’s statistical carry-over from December to January was of 1.6% (vs 3.3% in the previous month). In addition, end of period (4-weeks) inflation was 3.6% MoM by the end of December, versus 6.2% MoM in the previous month. End-of-period annual inflation was, therefore, 101.3% in 2022. Inflation...

  • byMaiaM

     - 3 minutes to read

    SEIDO High Frequency CPI - February 2023

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    Weekly inflation cooled down in the first week of March. Consumer prices grew 0.7% WoW, below the previous week (0.84% WoW). The monthly printing was 6.1% MoM, lower than the previous figure (6.3% MoM). The interannual rate was 104.6% YoY (vs 107.2% YoY). Core inflation led the cooldown in the last week of January, dropping to 0.1% WoW from the previous 1.1% WoW (revised), and with a monthly printing of 7.1% MoM (vs 7.4% MoM). Seasonal items showed a negative printing, with -0.1% WoW (vs 0.6% WoW -revised-), and the monthly rate was 3.2% MoM (vs 3.3% MoM -revised-). Lastly, the month kicked off with regulated price increases of 4.4% WoW, and a monthly increase of 6% MoM (vs previous 6.4% MoM) Monthly inflation continued to accelerate at 6.2% MoM. Monthly inflation rose in February, with a headline rate of 6.2% MoM (versus previous 6% MoM). Annual inflation, meanwhile, was 109.5% YoY (compared to our measured values for February 2022), continuing the trend of extremely elevated printings. Seasonal items slowed down, while core inflation spiked and regulated prices accelerated. During the first month of the year, core inflation was 7.1% MoM, sharply above the previous 5.4% MoM. Moreover, seasonal prices...

  • byMaiaM

     - 2 minutes to read

    SEIDO High Frequency CPI - February 8th 2023

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    Weekly inflation sharply accelerated. Consumer prices grew 1.7% WoW, significantly higher than in the previous week (1.1% WoW). The monthly printing was 5.7% MoM, above the previous figure (5.6% MoM). Holding inflation constant for the rest of the month, given our previously published figures, inflation would be 6.4% MoM in February. The interannual rate was 107.5% YoY (vs 106% YoY -revised-). | Main figures| Previous week (published) |Previous (revised) | Current week| Monthly |Annual| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Headline inflation| 1.1% WoW | 1.1% | 1.7% | 5.7% MoM| 107.5% YoY | | Core inflation| 0.7% WoW | 0.7% | 2.3% | 6.5% MoM| 100.1% YoY | | Dollarized core | 1.2% WoW | 1.2%| 2.1% | 6.7% MoM| 110.9% YoY | | Non-dollarized core | 0.3% WoW| 0.3% | 2.8% | 6.2% MoM| 109.5% YoY| | Food inflation | 0.8% WoW |0.8% | 3.4% | 7.7% MoM| 109.1% YoY| Core inflation accelerated while seasonal items prices turned positive. Weekly core inflation was 2.4% WoW, sharply above the previous 0.7% WoW, while its monthly printing was of 6.5% MoM (above previous 6.1% MoM). In addition, prices of seasonal items grew...

  • byMaiaM

     - 9 minutes to read

    Hands on tracking Consumption and Investment in real time

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here In this hands-on guide, we will show you how to use Alphacast Pipelines to create coincident indeces and monitor key economic variables. What is a coincident index? A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors two of the two largest components of GDP, Private Consumption and Private Fixed Investment. Since both indeces have a certain complexity, the methodology will be shown separately, though there are major similarities between the two. How to make the Investment Index In this case, we will show you how to create the coincident investment index. The index is divided in sections, which are weighed in accordance with their relevance to the variable at hand, and estimated using the latest available data for each. Given that the index uses the Alphacast pipelines engine and data available on the platform's database, that means that the Index will be updated to reflect it as soon as the data is uploaded in the Alphacast site - in a completely automated manner. The first step is identifying the data series...

  • byMaiaM

     - 3 minutes to read

    SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 5.5% MoM in January

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    Weekly inflation cooled down in the final week of the month. Consumer prices grew 1.1% WoW, below the previous week (1.7% WoW). The monthly printing was 5.6% MoM, above the previous figure (5.4% MoM). The interannual rate was 105.9% YoY (vs 106.7% YoY). Core inflation led the cooldown in the last week of January, dropping to 0.7% WoW from the previous 2.4% WoW (revised), and with a monthly printing of 6.1% MoM (vs 5.3% MoM). Seasonal items showed a negative printing, with -0.2% WoW (vs 0.8% WoW -revised-), and the monthly rate was 4.2% MoM (vs 6% MoM -revised-). Lastly, February kicked off with regulated price increases of 4.8% WoW, and a monthly increase of 5.9% MoM (vs previous 5.3% MoM) Monthly inflation remained elevated at 5.5% MoM. Monthly inflation moderately rose in January, with a headline rate of 5.5% MoM (versus previous 5.1% MoM). Annual inflation, meanwhile, was 107.6% YoY (compared to our measured values for January 2022), continuing the trend of extremely elevated printings. Seasonal items accelerated, while core inflation and regulated prices slowed down. During the first month of the year, core inflation was 5% MoM, below the previous 5.3% MoM. Moreover, seasonal prices increased 7.5% MoM...

  • byMaiaM

     - 2 minutes to read

    SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 1.7% WoW

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    Weekly inflation sharply accelerated. Consumer prices grew 1.7% WoW, significantly higher than in the previous week (0.7% WoW -revised-). The monthly printing was 5.4% MoM, above the previous figure. Holding inflation constant for the rest of the month, given our previously published figures, inflation would be 5.5% MoM in January. The interannual rate was 106.6% YoY (vs 107.5% YoY -revised-). | Main figures| Previous week (published) |Previous (revised) | Current week| Monthly |Annual| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Headline inflation| 0.8% WoW | 0.8% | 1.7% | 5.4% MoM| 106.6% YoY | | Core inflation| 0.9% WoW | 0.8% | 2.3% | 5.3% MoM| 98.6% YoY | | Dollarized core | 0.9% WoW | 0.8%| 2.2% | 5% MoM| 106.9% YoY | | Non-dollarized core | 0.8% WoW| 0.8% | 2.7% | 5.4% MoM| 104.4% YoY| | Food inflation | 0.9% WoW |0.7% | 3.4% | 5.8% MoM| 104.7% YoY| Core inflation and seasonal items prices heated up. Weekly core inflation was 2.3% WoW, sharply abovethe previous 0.8% WoW (revised), while its monthly printing was of 5.3% MoM (above previous 4.6% MoM). In addition, prices of seasonal items rose 0.8% WoW,...

  • byMaiaM

     - 2 minutes to read

    SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 0.8% WoW

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    Weekly inflation moderated. Consumer prices grew 0.8% WoW, lower than in the previous week (1.8% WoW -revised-). The monthly printing was 5.3% MoM, same as the previous figure. Holding inflation constant for the rest of the month, given our previously published figures, inflation would be 4.8% MoM in January. The interannual rate was 107.6% YoY (vs 107% YoY). | Main figures| Previous week |Previous (revised) | Current week| Monthly |Annual| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Headline inflation| 1.8% WoW | 1.8% | 0.8% | 5.3% MoM| 107.6% YoY | | Core inflation| 2.5% WoW | 2.5% | 0.9% | 4.6% MoM| 97.1% YoY | | Dollarized core | 2.5% WoW | 2.5%| 0.9% | 4.4% MoM| 105.5% YoY | | Non-dollarized core | 2.2% WoW| 2.2% | 0.8% | 4.6% MoM| 107.7% YoY| | Food inflation | 2.6% WoW |2.7% | 0.9% | 5.2% MoM| 101.8% YoY| Core inflation and seasonal items prices cooled down while regulated prices adjusted upwards. Weekly core inflation was 0.9% WoW, below the previous 2.5% WoW, while its monthly printing was of 4.6% MoM (above previous 4.3% MoM). In addition, prices of seasonal items rose 0.3%...

  • byMaiaM

     - 2 minutes to read

    SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 1.8% WoW

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    Weekly inflation accelerated. Consumer prices grew 1.8% WoW, higher than in the previous week (1.2% WoW -revised-). The monthly printing was 5.3% MoM, below the previous 5.4% MoM (revised). The interannual rate was 106.9% YoY (vs 104.7% YoY -revised-). Core inflation sharply increased while seasonal items remained cool. Weekly core inflation was 2.5% WoW, significantly above the previous 0.8% WoW (revised) and the highest value since July, while its monthly printing was of 4.3% MoM (above previous 4.2% MoM -revised-). In addition, prices of seasonal items rose 0.9% WoW, not very different from the previous value (0.8% WoW -revised-), and the monthly rate was 9.1% MoM (vs 10.1% MoM -revised-). Lastly, regulated prices increased 0.2% WoW, while their monthly printing was of 4.1% MoM (up from previous 3.7% MoM -revised-). Prices of dollarized and non-dollarized items heated up significantly. The weekly printing for dollarized items inflation was 2.5% WoW, sharply above the previous 0.8% WoW (revised), while the monthly printing was 4% MoM (vs previous 4.1% MoM -revised-). Likewise, non-dollarized items inflation was 2.2% WoW (vs previous 0.9% WoW -revised-), and the monthly figure grew to 4.4% MoM (vs previous 4.2% MoM -revised-). Food and Beverages prices increased rapidly. Our...