Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 2.2% MoM in September

September saw a renewed rise in inflation. Monthly inflation reached 2.2% MoM, quite above the 1.6% MoM rate posted in August, slowing down the prevailing disinflationary path. As a result, the annual figure increased slightly to 32.9% YoY, staying well under the triple-digit mark. This outcome reflects softer increases in regulated prices.

Throughout the reference month, seasonal, core and regulated prices picked up. Core inflation came in at 2.48% MoM, quite above the 1.8% MoM rate from the previous month. Seasonal goods posted a 2.05% MoM gain, surpassing August’s 1.0%, and regulated prices rose 2% MoM, a marked increase from August’s 1.2%. Core items accounted for 1.3 percentage points of headline inflation, regulated items contributed 0.6 pp, and seasonal components added 0.3 pp. Excluding regulated prices, monthly inflation would have hovered closer to 1.6%.

The carry-over effect from August to September stood at 0.7%, lower than last month’s figure. Meanwhile, end-of-period inflation over the last four weeks reached 1.8%, quite below the most recently updated estimate.

Market forecasts remained cautious but got more pessimists. Analysts expect that the CPI change will stay around the 1.8% mark at most. Reflecting a cautios disinflationary trend, inflation expectations for August were increased to 1.8% MoM. The outlook for 2025 was revised to 28.2%, a 0.9 percentage point rise from the prior REM estimate of 27.3%. Projections for 2026 rose a bit to 17.3%, while the forecast for 2027 continued to suggest a potential inflation rate of around 10.7%.

Note: Starting from the week of June 9th, weekly variation dates correspond to the first day of each week. For example, the week of June 23rd covers the period from June 23rd to June 29th. Prior to this change, weeks were counted from Wednesday to Tuesday; now, they run from Monday to Sunday.