Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 1.8% MoM in June

Inflation decelerated once more in June. Inflation for the reference month rose by 1.8% MoM, down from 2.0% in May, confirming the ongoing disinflationary trend. Consequently, annual inflation settled at 35.5% YoY, firmly below the triple-digit threshold. This final figure reflects a slowdown in the increase of regulated prices and the absence of significant price declines in key categories such as vegetables and fuels. Additionally, the Hot Sale event—which had contributed to a more pronounced deceleration in May—did not affect June’s figures.

In the reference period, seasonal components remained flat, core prices moved higher, while regulated items registered a mild easing. Core inflation advanced by 1.8% MoM in June 2025, exceeding the 1.5% MoM increase observed in the prior month. Seasonal prices registered a 0.5% MoM rise, in line with the latest revised estimate, while regulated items rose by 2.7% MoM, significantly lower than the 3.8% MoM recorded in May. Core inflation contributed 0.9 percentage points to the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI), while regulated prices added 0.8 pp and seasonal components contributed 0.1 pp. Absent the impact of regulated prices, the monthly inflation rate would have stood closer to 1%.

The carry-over effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from June into July stood at 0.8%, matching the rate observed in the previous month. At the same time, end-of-period inflation for the past four weeks reached 1.9%, closely aligning with the last revised value.

Inflation rose in the final week of June (week 23/6). Consumer prices posted a 0.4% WoW increase during the week, outpacing the prior week's 0.1% WoW rise. The monthly inflation average over the past four weeks remained stable at 1.7% MoM, unchanged from the preceding measurement. Annually, inflation stood at 35.9% YoY, marginally below the 36% YoY recorded earlier. Core inflation picked up, whereas seasonal and regulated items showed limited movement. Seasonal prices moved up by 0.1% WoW, mirroring their previous behavior. Core prices increased 0.4% WoW, following a flat WoW outcome in the previous week, and regulated prices stayed constant at 0.5% WoW. From a MoM perspective, seasonal goods rose by 0.5%, in line with the earlier 0.4% MoM gain. Core inflation reached 1.6% MoM, surpassing the earlier 1.4% MoM, while regulated prices rose 2.5% MoM, falling short of the previously revised 2.8% MoM.

Note: Starting from the week of June 9th, weekly variation dates correspond to the first day of each week. For example, the week of June 23rd covers the period from June 23rd to June 29th. Prior to this change, weeks were counted from Wednesday to Tuesday; now, they run from Monday to Sunday.

Market participants lowered their average expectations. Analysts now anticipate that the CPI will remain below the 2% threshold through at least November. In line with the ongoing deceleration, monthly price expectations for June were set at 1.9%. The inflation outlook for 2025 was revised down from 31.8% to 28.6%, marking a 3.2 percentage point decline from the previous REM report. Similarly, projections for 2026 were adjusted from 18% to 16%, while the estimate for 2027 continued to point toward a potential inflation rate of 10%.